Saturday, July 24, 2021
Binging on Vintage and Market Analysis
As you can probably tell, I've been binging on vintage lately. Going from relatively no posts in March and April to now 12 posts in July, a correlation in my acquisitions can be made. We've seen 51-53 Bowmans and 52-63 Topps grace these pages as new acquisitions. My 53T set has been "stuck in the mud" for quite some time as I've been reluctant to pay the high-number prices for $50-$100 BV cards. The one thing you can always count on is that I'll search the entire spectrum of my wantlist to locate the "deal of the market" specials. Amazingly, I've still been able to find them on Ebay every once in a while. Sportlots used to be a reliable second source for me, but it seems the everyone's now discovered that source, so there aren't too many vintage deals available. I used to find vintage commons for as low as $0.17 in masses that I could load up on a 100 singles at a time. I'll still go there, but it'll be for just a small handful of cards at most. Vintage superstars used to be available for 10%-20% BV no problem, but now I'd rather go to Ebay for those cards to get a better deal.
With the market as high as it is now, the question is whether this is a market correction from 20+ years of stagnation, or whether this is a short-term trend headed for another crash like 1991. Although I began to predict this boom between 2016-2018, I feared another market crash. That may still be the case for 21st century cards, but I've pulled out of that complicated market and will leave that mess for someone else to figure out. During the crash of 1991, it was the modern cards that took a major nosedive first between 1991-1992. At the time, the modern cards included primarily 1980's, but the 1970's also took a major dip during the mid-to-late 1990's. The 77T dropped 45%, while 72T dropped only 25%. The vintage market didn't react as sharply. Many of the 60's sets dropped only 20% while the 50's sets only dropped by about 10%. Data was compiled by entering all monthly set prices into a spreadsheet and graphing it. I used Baseball Cards Magazine from 1981-1984 and Beckett Baseball Monthly from 1984-2001 since I own nearly every issue of each.